Apple Bets on Time, Not Speed, in the AI Race
Apple has effectively stepped back from the generative AI race in 2025, delaying its next-generation Siri until 2026 while competitors push aggressively into AI hardware and software. The strategy reduces short-term risk but raises long-term questions about Apple’s role in a post-smartphone, AI-driven ecosystem.
Apple and AI: A Strategic Pause, Not a Technical Failure
In 2025, artificial intelligence became the dominant narrative across Silicon Valley — everywhere except Cupertino. While OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta accelerated releases of models, agents and AI-first hardware concepts, Apple chose a different path: delay.The company confirmed in spring that its most ambitious AI upgrade — a deeply personalized version of Siri — would not arrive until 2026, despite being previously positioned as a 2025 release. Apple rarely pre-announces products so far in advance, making this disclosure unusual and strategically revealing.
Internally, Apple framed the delay as a quality decision. As one executive stated, the company “did not want to disappoint customers.” Externally, however, the pause intensified pressure from investors and analysts who see AI adoption accelerating faster than Apple’s roadmap.
Apple Bets on Time, Not Speed, in the AI Race
Competitive Pressure Is Real — and Visible
The contrast with competitors is stark.
In 2025:
OpenAI released Sora 2, briefly topping the Apple App Store.
Anthropic expanded its Claude model lineup.
Amazon rolled out major updates to Alexa.
Microsoft launched enterprise software for autonomous “AI agents”.
Meta began preparations for its next frontier model, internally codenamed Avocado.
Nvidia became the world’s most valuable tech company after Apple, driven by demand for AI GPUs and its $3 million Grace Blackwell NVL72 systems.
Meanwhile, Apple’s last major AI reveal was Apple Intelligence in 2024, a software bundle that focused on image generation, text rewriting, notification summaries and ChatGPT integration — useful, but not transformative.
Consumer feedback has been mixed. While photo editing and notification filtering received praise, other features struggled, including an AI notification rewrite function that had to be temporarily disabled due to inaccuracies.
Siri as the Single Point of Failure — and Opportunity
More than any product, Siri has become Apple’s AI litmus test.
Apple has promised investors a “more personalized Siri” capable of:
Context-aware task execution
Intelligent bookings based on travel plans
Understanding personal relationships and user intent
Currently, when Siri receives complex prompts, it often redirects users to ChatGPT. Apple has openly acknowledged that other foundation models — including Google’s Gemini — could be integrated in the future.
This raises a critical strategic question:
Will Apple build Siri alone, or partner deeply with external AI labs?
Given that OpenAI and Anthropic are valued at $500 billion and $350 billion, respectively, outright acquisitions appear unrealistic — even for Apple.
The contrast with competitors is stark.
In 2025:
OpenAI released Sora 2, briefly topping the Apple App Store.
Anthropic expanded its Claude model lineup.
Amazon rolled out major updates to Alexa.
Microsoft launched enterprise software for autonomous “AI agents”.
Meta began preparations for its next frontier model, internally codenamed Avocado.
Nvidia became the world’s most valuable tech company after Apple, driven by demand for AI GPUs and its $3 million Grace Blackwell NVL72 systems.
Meanwhile, Apple’s last major AI reveal was Apple Intelligence in 2024, a software bundle that focused on image generation, text rewriting, notification summaries and ChatGPT integration — useful, but not transformative.
Consumer feedback has been mixed. While photo editing and notification filtering received praise, other features struggled, including an AI notification rewrite function that had to be temporarily disabled due to inaccuracies.
Siri as the Single Point of Failure — and Opportunity
More than any product, Siri has become Apple’s AI litmus test.
Apple has promised investors a “more personalized Siri” capable of:
Context-aware task execution
Intelligent bookings based on travel plans
Understanding personal relationships and user intent
Currently, when Siri receives complex prompts, it often redirects users to ChatGPT. Apple has openly acknowledged that other foundation models — including Google’s Gemini — could be integrated in the future.
This raises a critical strategic question:
Will Apple build Siri alone, or partner deeply with external AI labs?
Given that OpenAI and Anthropic are valued at $500 billion and $350 billion, respectively, outright acquisitions appear unrealistic — even for Apple.
Capital Spending: Apple vs the AI Hyperscalers
The AI race is capital-intensive, and Apple is playing by different rules.
In 2025:
Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon collectively spent $380 billion on capital expenditures, largely for Nvidia-powered data centers.
Apple spent $12.71 billion, up 35% year-on-year, but still below its 2018 levels.
Instead of Nvidia GPUs, Apple relies on its own silicon, originally designed for Macs, citing user privacy and on-device processing advantages. This strategy reduces infrastructure costs but limits scale — a tradeoff that increasingly defines Apple’s AI positioning.
Leadership Reset Signals Strategic Urgency
At the end of the year, Apple reshaped its AI leadership:
John Giannandrea, head of AI and machine learning, will retire in 2026.
Responsibilities were redistributed among COO Sabih Khan, services chief Eddy Cue, and software head Craig Federighi.
Apple hired Amar Subramanya, formerly head of engineering for Google Gemini and later a Microsoft AI executive.
Notably, Apple publicly announced Subramanya’s appointment — rare for a VP-level technical hire. This move was widely interpreted as a signal to investors: Apple recognizes the stakes and is resetting execution.
Investors Worry — But the Core Business Is Strong
Despite AI concerns, Apple’s fundamentals remain resilient.
iPhone 17 exceeded expectations.
Apple forecasts 10% revenue growth for the holiday quarter.
According to Counterpoint Research, Apple is likely to become the world’s largest smartphone vendor by unit sales in 2025 and 2026, surpassing Samsung.
Importantly, analysts note that AI has not yet altered smartphone buying behavior at scale. As Counterpoint’s Yang Wang observed, competitors’ AI features have not materially changed everyday phone usage.
The Bigger Threat: Life After the Smartphone
The real risk may not be Google or Meta — but Apple’s own AI partners.
OpenAI recently acquired io, the AI hardware startup founded by former Apple design chief Jony Ive, for $6.4 billion. Ive is now helping OpenAI develop next-generation consumer devices aimed at AI-native interaction.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stated that smartphones are poorly suited for AI companions — and that Apple, not Google, is OpenAI’s true long-term rival.
Early AI hardware experiments already exist, from Meta’s Ray-Ban smart glasses to wearable AI pendants that summarize conversations. These devices hint at a post-smartphone interface — the exact future Apple must confront.
The AI race is capital-intensive, and Apple is playing by different rules.
In 2025:
Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon collectively spent $380 billion on capital expenditures, largely for Nvidia-powered data centers.
Apple spent $12.71 billion, up 35% year-on-year, but still below its 2018 levels.
Instead of Nvidia GPUs, Apple relies on its own silicon, originally designed for Macs, citing user privacy and on-device processing advantages. This strategy reduces infrastructure costs but limits scale — a tradeoff that increasingly defines Apple’s AI positioning.
Leadership Reset Signals Strategic Urgency
At the end of the year, Apple reshaped its AI leadership:
John Giannandrea, head of AI and machine learning, will retire in 2026.
Responsibilities were redistributed among COO Sabih Khan, services chief Eddy Cue, and software head Craig Federighi.
Apple hired Amar Subramanya, formerly head of engineering for Google Gemini and later a Microsoft AI executive.
Notably, Apple publicly announced Subramanya’s appointment — rare for a VP-level technical hire. This move was widely interpreted as a signal to investors: Apple recognizes the stakes and is resetting execution.
Investors Worry — But the Core Business Is Strong
Despite AI concerns, Apple’s fundamentals remain resilient.
iPhone 17 exceeded expectations.
Apple forecasts 10% revenue growth for the holiday quarter.
According to Counterpoint Research, Apple is likely to become the world’s largest smartphone vendor by unit sales in 2025 and 2026, surpassing Samsung.
Importantly, analysts note that AI has not yet altered smartphone buying behavior at scale. As Counterpoint’s Yang Wang observed, competitors’ AI features have not materially changed everyday phone usage.
The Bigger Threat: Life After the Smartphone
The real risk may not be Google or Meta — but Apple’s own AI partners.
OpenAI recently acquired io, the AI hardware startup founded by former Apple design chief Jony Ive, for $6.4 billion. Ive is now helping OpenAI develop next-generation consumer devices aimed at AI-native interaction.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stated that smartphones are poorly suited for AI companions — and that Apple, not Google, is OpenAI’s true long-term rival.
Early AI hardware experiments already exist, from Meta’s Ray-Ban smart glasses to wearable AI pendants that summarize conversations. These devices hint at a post-smartphone interface — the exact future Apple must confront.
Time Is Apple’s Asset — Execution Is the Risk
Apple still has time. OpenAI’s consumer devices are likely two years away from mass release. But when Apple launches its next-generation Siri, expectations will be extreme.
As analyst Gene Munster put it, Apple has effectively told the market:
“Ignore us this year — next year we’ll impress you.”
In AI, that is a bold promise.
Apple is not losing the AI race — it is delaying its entry. Whether that restraint proves visionary or costly depends entirely on Siri’s 2026 debut. In a market moving at exponential speed, Apple’s margin for error has narrowed — but its ecosystem still gives it a fighting chance.
Apple still has time. OpenAI’s consumer devices are likely two years away from mass release. But when Apple launches its next-generation Siri, expectations will be extreme.
As analyst Gene Munster put it, Apple has effectively told the market:
“Ignore us this year — next year we’ll impress you.”
In AI, that is a bold promise.
Apple is not losing the AI race — it is delaying its entry. Whether that restraint proves visionary or costly depends entirely on Siri’s 2026 debut. In a market moving at exponential speed, Apple’s margin for error has narrowed — but its ecosystem still gives it a fighting chance.
By Claire Whitmore
December 19, 2025
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December 19, 2025
Join us. Our Telegram: @forexturnkey
All to the point, no ads. A channel that doesn't tire you out, but pumps you up.
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