Gold is back in the spotlight: How much is a Costco bar worth today and what an investor needs to know

Gold is back in the spotlight: How much is a Costco bar worth today and what an investor needs to know

Gold as an indicator of instability

On September 3, 2025, an ounce of gold cost $3,549 . For comparison: a year ago - about $2,500 . A 42% increase over 12 months is an indicator that is comparable not with bonds or deposits, but rather with volatile markets. However, gold is not perceived as a risky asset, on the contrary - it is becoming a "safe haven".

John Ulin, a certified financial planner in Florida, explains it simply:

"In times of war, trade conflicts, debt risks and inflation expectations, gold plays its classic role as an insurance policy. It is even more reliable than bonds."

If you had bought the bar a year ago

Costco has become a popular place to buy physical gold bars in recent years. In September 2024, an ounce cost $2,679 . Today, it costs $3,549 .

The unrealized profit would be $870 or 32.5% . But this is an "ideal" figure. In practice, the seller will take into account the commission, and the state will take into account the taxes.

How much can you really get from a sale?

It is important to understand: the spot price is only a guide. Dealers deduct 5-10% on average . In specialized jewelry and investment stores, the difference is smaller - 1-5%.

“Most buyers melt down the metal, so Costco certificates don’t add to the price,” says Ulin. “Unlike luxury watches, where provenance is important, with gold, weight and purity are key.”

The secondary market in the US is extremely heterogeneous: you can make a deal quickly and safely through a specialized store, or you can take a risk on eBay or Facebook Marketplace, where there is a high probability of fraud and underpricing.

Gold is back in the spotlight: How much is a Costco bar worth today and what an investor needs to know

Taxes: What Investors Forget About

Physical gold in the US is classified as a collectible by the IRS. This leads to several rules:

when sold during the year, the profit is taxed as ordinary income (rate up to 37% depending on the income level);

If sold after a year, the capital gains tax rate applies, but for collectibles it is higher - up to 28% ;

additional state taxes may apply (ranging from 0% in Florida to double-digit rates in California or New York);

For high-income people, the tax on net investment income is 3.8% .

Thus, even with growth of 32–40%, the investor will receive less in hand.

Why Gold Continues to Rise

Inflation: Fears remain and gold serves as a safe haven.

Geopolitics: wars, sanctions, trade disputes make the metal especially in demand.

Fed Rates: As Bond Yields Fall, Gold Becomes Alternative

These factors together push the price up.

Forecast for 1-2 years

In the coming years, analysts expect demand for gold to remain:

Ongoing geopolitical instability will keep prices high;

A possible cut in Fed rates will make the metal even more attractive;

Growing demand from Asian markets (India and China) will put additional pressure on supply.

Some experts cautiously predict a move towards $3,800-4,000 per ounce within two years.
Gold is living up to its reputation today: It doesn't pay interest, but it does bring peace of mind. Those who bought a bar at Costco a year ago have already made a profit. But as profitability grows, it's important to remember the fees and taxes that reduce your bottom line.

For investors, the main lesson is clear: gold remains a reliable portfolio component, especially when the world offers nothing more stable.


By Jake Sullivan
September 05, 2025

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