Trump’s 10-Day Deadline on Iran: What It Means for Oil Prices and Global Markets

Trump’s 10-Day Deadline on Iran: What It Means for Oil Prices and Global Markets

Geopolitical Tensions Rise: Trump’s Decision on Iran Looms
President Donald Trump has announced that he will decide within the next 10 days whether to launch military strikes against Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East and sending shockwaves through global oil markets.
Speaking at the inaugural meeting of his Board of Peace, Trump stated: “So now we may have to take it a step further, or we may not. Maybe we’re going to make a deal. You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.”
This announcement comes amid a major U.S. military buildup in the region, with the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier already stationed in the Middle East and the USS Gerald Ford en route. The heightened military presence underscores the seriousness of the situation, as oil prices surge on fears of potential conflict.

Oil Prices Spike Amid Fears of Conflict

Global oil markets are reacting sharply to the rising geopolitical uncertainty:
West Texas Intermediate (WTI): Rose $1.24, or 1.9%, to close at $66.43 per barrel.
Brent Crude: Gained $1.31, or 1.86%, settling at $71.66 per barrel.
Oil traders are particularly concerned about the potential disruption of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade. This week, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard conducted military exercises in the strait, signaling its readiness to respond to any U.S. action.
The fear of conflict has already driven WTI prices up by more than 5% this week and nearly 16% year-to-date. Analysts warn that a full-scale war between the U.S. and Iran could push prices even higher, potentially destabilizing global energy markets.
Diplomatic Efforts Stall
Despite recent talks in Geneva between U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Iranian officials, progress has been limited. Vice President JD Vance noted that Iran failed to address key “red lines” set by Trump during the negotiations.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed these concerns, stating: “There are many reasons and arguments that one could make for a strike against Iran.” While some progress was reportedly made in Geneva, significant gaps remain on critical issues, leaving the possibility of military action on the table.

Trump’s 10-Day Deadline on Iran: What It Means for Oil Prices and Global Markets

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes daily. Any disruption in this vital shipping route would have catastrophic consequences for global energy markets.
Iran’s military exercises in the strait highlight its ability to threaten oil shipments, adding another layer of risk to an already tense situation. Oil traders are closely monitoring developments, as even the threat of conflict could lead to sustained price volatility.

Economic Implications of a Potential Strike

A U.S. military strike against Iran would have far-reaching implications:
Oil Supply Disruptions: Conflict in the Middle East could severely disrupt oil production and shipping, driving prices higher.
Inflation Risks: Rising oil prices would increase transportation and manufacturing costs, potentially fueling inflation worldwide.
Geopolitical Instability: A strike could escalate into a broader regional conflict, drawing in other nations and further destabilizing the Middle East.
Conversely, if Trump opts for diplomacy and a meaningful deal is reached, oil prices could stabilize or even decline as market fears ease. However, given Iran’s history of non-compliance with international agreements, skepticism remains high.
President Trump’s impending decision on whether to strike Iran represents a pivotal moment for global markets. With oil prices already climbing and military tensions escalating, the next 10 days will be critical in determining the trajectory of U.S.-Iran relations—and the global economy.
As Trump himself cautioned: “It’s proven to be over the years not easy to make a meaningful deal with Iran. We have to make a meaningful deal, otherwise bad things happen.”
For traders, investors, and policymakers, staying informed about these developments is essential. The stakes are high, and the outcome could reshape energy markets and geopolitical dynamics for years to come.

Why are oil prices rising?
Fears of a potential U.S. military strike against Iran have raised concerns about supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz.
What is the Strait of Hormuz, and why does it matter?
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil supply passes daily. Any disruption could severely impact global energy markets.
What happens if the U.S. strikes Iran?
A strike could lead to oil supply disruptions, higher prices, and increased geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
Could diplomacy resolve the crisis?
While talks have occurred, significant gaps remain. A meaningful deal is possible but uncertain given Iran’s past behavior.
How should investors prepare?
Investors should monitor oil prices, geopolitical developments, and potential impacts on inflation and global markets.
By Miles Harrington
February 20, 2026

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