Trump’s 25% Tariff Threat on Iran Partners: A New Phase of Economic Warfare

Trump’s 25% Tariff Threat on Iran Partners: A New Phase of Economic Warfare

Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 25% tariff on all U.S. business with countries trading with Iran marks a shift from targeted sanctions to broad secondary economic punishment, with direct implications for global trade and markets.

A tariff weapon aimed beyond Iran

President Donald Trump has declared that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on “all forms of trade with the United States.” According to Trump’s post on Truth Social, the measure takes effect immediately and is described as “final and irreversible.”

Unlike traditional sanctions that target specific sectors or entities, this policy is designed to pressure third countries rather than Iran alone. It effectively forces U.S. trading partners to choose between access to the American market and continued economic relations with Tehran.

The White House has not yet provided technical details, and officials declined to clarify how the tariff would be implemented or under which legal authority it would fall.

Trump’s 25% Tariff Threat on Iran Partners: A New Phase of Economic Warfare

Why markets take this seriously

Markets tend to discount political statements — until they threaten to alter global trade flows overnight. A flat 25% tariff on all U.S. transactions with Iran’s partners would be unprecedented in scope, especially if applied without exemptions or phased implementation.
This approach signals escalation. It extends U.S. economic pressure outward, transforming Iran-related sanctions into a systemic trade risk for multiple economies. For markets, the issue is not enforcement mechanics but uncertainty. When rules are unclear and immediate, risk premiums rise.

As one global trade analyst observed, “Secondary tariffs are more destabilizing than sanctions because they rewrite incentives for everyone, not just the target.”

The oil connection

Iran is a major oil producer, and its trade relationships are tightly linked to energy markets. Any measure that discourages countries from buying Iranian oil or engaging in related financial transactions introduces friction into global supply chains.
Even if physical supply remains unchanged in the short term, uncertainty around enforcement, shipping insurance, and payment channels can push oil prices higher. Energy markets tend to react first, pricing not outcomes but probabilities of disruption.

This matters for inflation expectations, FX markets, and broader risk sentiment.

Protests, pressure, and escalation risk

The tariff announcement comes amid ongoing anti-government protests in Iran, reportedly driven by inflation and economic hardship. Trump has publicly supported demonstrators and warned of possible military action if violence continues.
This combination of internal unrest and external economic pressure increases the likelihood of miscalculation. Markets are sensitive to scenarios where economic measures bleed into military or cyber escalation, especially in energy-producing regions.

Legal uncertainty adds another layer

Trump’s previous tariffs were introduced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a legal framework that is currently under scrutiny ahead of a Supreme Court decision on the legitimacy of several major tariff programs.
It remains unclear whether the Iran-related tariff threat is based on the same authority. That ambiguity matters. If legal challenges emerge, enforcement could become uneven or delayed, further complicating trade planning for affected countries and corporations.

Implications for global trade and FX

For exporters and multinational firms, the message is blunt: geopolitical alignment is becoming a trade variable. Countries with exposure to both U.S. markets and Iranian trade face elevated policy risk.
In FX markets, such policies typically strengthen the dollar in the short term due to risk aversion, while increasing volatility in currencies tied to trade-sensitive economies and energy flows.
Trump’s tariff threat represents a shift from sanctioning Iran to disciplining its partners. Whether fully enforced or not, the announcement alone reshapes expectations around trade, energy, and geopolitical risk.

For markets, the key issue is not ideology but uncertainty — and uncertainty now carries a price.
Written by Ethan Blake
Independent researcher, fintech consultant, and market analyst.
January 13, 2026

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